The 2025 guide to Australia's top export trends

Key Takeaways

• A two-speed export economy: While total resource and energy export earnings are forecast to dip slightly to $352 billion by 2026–27 due to softer commodity prices, this masks a massive boom in specific sectors.
• Critical minerals are the growth engine: Driven by the global energy transition, lithium exports are projected to climb to $6.1 billion and rare earths to $5 billion by 2026–27.
• Gold is the "safe-haven" star: Surging global prices and strong demand are expected to push gold exports to a record $56 billion in 2025–26, offsetting declines elsewhere.
• Key markets remain stable: China, Japan, and South Korea continue to be the dominant buyers, accounting for more than 60% of total Australian exports, with China still the primary destination for iron ore.
• ESG and risk are major factors: Businesses face significant challenges from commodity price volatility and increasing pressure from global buyers to demonstrate strong ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) credentials. 

Introduction: Understanding Australia’s 2025 export landscape

Australia’s export economy in 2025 is navigating a complex mix of opportunity and challenge. On one hand, global demand for critical minerals and clean energy resources is driving unprecedented growth. On the other, softening commodity prices and trade uncertainties pose risks for traditional sectors. For industrial business leaders, understanding which sectors are growing, which policy shifts affect trade, and what the medium-term outlook looks like is critical for strategic planning.

This article explores the top exporters in Australia in 2025, examines key policy and market drivers, major destinations, emerging trends, and provides actionable insights for businesses looking to align with export trends.

Fastest-growing export sectors in 2025

Critical minerals and lithium are leading Australia’s export growth. Lithium export earnings are projected to rise from $4.8 billion in 2024–25 to over $6.1 billion by 2026–27, driven by EV batteries and energy storage demand.

Exports of rare earths, manganese, and graphite are also expanding, with forecast earnings increasing from $2 billion in 2024–25 to $5 billion by 2026–27. Gold remains strong, with projected export earnings of around $56 billion in 2025–26, driven by favorable global prices and production levels.

What this means for business leaders:

• Resource sector: Position for the energy transition, especially lithium, copper, and rare earths.
  
• Agribusiness: Diversify into value-added exports to supplement traditional commodities.
  
• Investors: Consider critical-mineral projects with long-term export potential.
  

Major export destinations

China, Japan, and South Korea continue to dominate, representing more than 60% of total Australian exports. China remains the single largest buyer of Australian commodities, particularly iron ore, coal, and minerals.

Other significant and growing markets include India and Southeast Asia, especially for agricultural goods and critical minerals. Businesses targeting these regions can capture emerging demand and reduce over-reliance on traditional buyers.

Strategic takeaway: Align operations and logistics to meet the standards, preferences, and regulatory requirements of key export destinations.

Export policy updates and trade agreements

Government initiatives supporting market diversification and stable trade agreements are crucial for growth. Australia is positioning itself as a reliable supplier of critical minerals, with streamlined regulation and international cooperation strengthening supply chains.

Implications for exporters:

• Engage with government trade initiatives to access new markets.
  
• Factor trade agreements and policy stability into strategic expansion plans.

Emerging trends & opportunities

• Energy transition demand: Export growth is fueled by lithium, copper, and other critical minerals essential for clean energy technologies.
  
• Gold’s safe-haven appeal: Economic uncertainty and inflation are increasing demand for gold exports.
  
• Agricultural diversification: Premium food products, including high-quality meat, grains, and specialty foods, are expanding their export footprint.
  
• Educational and service exports: While goods dominate, education and IP services provide diversification.
  
  

Strategic insight: Resource-focused and agribusiness companies can leverage these trends to capture growth and diversify revenue streams.

Risks & challenges for exporters

• Commodity price volatility: Iron ore, coal, and gas prices fluctuate, impacting revenue predictability.
  
• Geopolitical exposure: Dependence on markets like China introduces trade tension risks.
  
• Infrastructure bottlenecks: Logistics and shipping limitations can add costs and slow delivery.
  
• Sustainability expectations: Global buyers increasingly prioritise ESG-compliant, low-emission materials, particularly in minerals and energy sectors.
  
  

Business recommendation: Hedge exposure, diversify markets, and strengthen ESG credentials to remain competitive.

Export outlook for 2026–2027

Total resource and energy export earnings are expected to slightly decline, from $385 billion in 2024–25 to $352 billion in 2026–27, due to softer commodity prices. However, gold and critical minerals are projected to grow.

Strategic takeaway for leaders:

• Secure long-term off-take contracts for minerals.
  
• Consider vertical integration to capture additional value.
  
• Stay agile to shifting global demand and emerging markets.
  

Real-world examples and applications

• A Queensland lithium producer secured multi-year contracts with international battery manufacturers, becoming a key EV supply chain player.
  
• A Victorian gold mine optimised operations and compliance to maintain strong export volumes.
  
• Agribusiness exporters leveraged government trade initiatives to expand into Southeast Asia.
  

Conclusion

Australia’s top exporters in 2025 highlight a dynamic mix of opportunity and risk. Critical minerals, lithium, rare earths, and gold dominate growth, while government policy, trade agreements, and emerging markets shape the landscape. Businesses that align operations with these trends, strengthen ESG credentials, and manage risk are best positioned to succeed.

By understanding these export dynamics, industrial leaders can make informed decisions, secure long-term contracts, and plan strategically to capture growth in Australia’s evolving export market.